Taliban forced to choose
On September 9, a bomb exploded in the northern province of Khundus, killing at least 50 people. ISIS claimed credit for the attack in Khorasan Province. It’s no coincidence that the terrorist who detonated the bomb was named Muhammad al-Uygur. According to Khorasan Province, the Taliban is sympathetic to China, and China’s government exerts pressure on Muslim Uyghurs. There are enough jihadists in China battling non-Muslims for the Islamic Turkestan caliphate’s liberation, and these jihadists, like the Taliban, are Sunni Muslims. ISIS is pressuring the Taliban to choose between their “wealthy, generous” neighbor and their “Muslim brother.” And this is the Taliban’s most serious international dilemma since it must pick between two awful situations.
If the Taliban chooses to back TIP, it risks losing its most important source of future funding and ally (Turkistan Islamic Party). Taliban is fully aware that there is no other country in the region that is as large and strong as China. China has the potential to become the world’s largest import and export partner in the future. Pakistan is an excellent example of this. The fact that China was one of the first foreign governments to visit the Taliban bodes well for the future of both China and the Taliban. This is a truth that the Taliban cannot ignore. Furthermore, China has the potential to become the Taliban’s most powerful adversary in the world, which will reduce the Taliban’s power. That is the current state of affairs in the globe.
What if it opts for China? The Taliban rose to power by saying that only the Islamic order can preserve Afghanistan and the globe; as a result, the population supports them, and Pakistan and other Islamic governments have backed them. In comparison to the 1990s, the Taliban has implemented several reforms and improvements. Already, it is causing orthodox Muslims’ support to dwindle. It will generate widespread consternation throughout the Muslim world, particularly among jihadist organizations like the Taliban, who have pledged to hand over TIP terrorists to the Chinese government. The Taliban’s popularity may plummet across Afghanistan, and this will be exacerbated. That is Afghanistan’s reality.
TIP is the largest Islamic and jihadist organization in China, and they have carried out several assaults. TIP has an excellent working connection with Al-Qaeda and other jihadist organizations in the area. If he ignores the TIP, it will have a negative impact on all regional relationships with violent organizations. As a result of this circumstance, new “jihadist heroes” will emerge, such as ISIS Khorasan Province.
Other sides
This is not a case study for the Taliban because there are other options such as Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. In addition, unlike ISIS, Al Qaeda has strong support in the region, not only from armed groups that have joined Al Qaeda but also from the population’s sympathy for Al Qaeda. TIP does not follow ISIS and has a good working relationship with al-Qaeda. This is what distinguishes TIP. The Taliban’s position will have an impact on TIP’s future. TIP must decide whether to continue with their current approach or to pursue a new path, which is dependent on ISIS. Even terrorists will find this extreme. When it comes to TTP or other regional jihadist organizations, the Taliban does not have a position, according to the government. This impasse is a significant concern for the Taliban and Central Asia’s future. TIP and other regional terrorist organisations will be approached by ISIS. Because Afghanistan is neither Iraq nor Syria, the work of the Special Forces is extremely difficult. There are powerful clans, each with its own beliefs and goals. ISIS holds the final card: ethnic conflict. Pashtuns make up the majority of the Taliban’s social base. Baloch people are underrepresented in the new government. In its fight against the Pashtun Taliban, ISIS is counting on Baloch backing. This reignites the Great Balochistan crisis. This will result in a new map, new borders, and a new Central Asia. This does not sit well with Iran, Pakistan, and the rest of Central Asia.
The Taliban differs from ISIS in that it does not wage global jihad and is willing to make compromises in foreign diplomacy. As a result, no one likes ISIS save those who need it, such as the future. T.I.P. ISIS has given the Taliban legitimacy. Uno has only one option. If they could get through Isis and the Taliban. In truth, ISIS wants both what it wants and what it doesn’t want. It desires this because its goal is to portray the Taliban as a “non-muslim” group. It does not desire this since it is fully aware that the Taliban would strengthen.
Possible futures
As a result, the destiny of the area will be determined by whether the Taliban’s foreign policy is Islamist or geopolitical. TIP, ISIS, and China’s involvement in the region may rise or diminish as a result of this strategy. For the time being, it appears that the Taliban will not take any action against TIP. For jihadists, it may designate its northern border as a “portal to redemption.” The Taliban already lacks the time and money to address its own issues. It must subdue the province of Panjshir and manage the ethnic policy of the inner Baloch-Pashtun. The Taliban’s battle for existence will be determined by the Taliban’s position versus jihadist groups in other neighboring nations (Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, China, and Pakistan). Because the United Nations and “power brokers” are willing to put up with local tyrants. The export of this “revolution,” on the other hand, cannot be the subject. This decision, in reality, marks the end of all revolutions. Trotsky and Stalin are well-known examples of this. In the Islamic world, there are several examples, such as the Iranian Islamic Revolution. They intended to export the Islamic revolution to Turkey and Central Asian countries, but this proved difficult.
There is one thing they all share in common. Those who tried to spread the revolution were quickly repressed and thwarted. Those who focused on the immediate environment lived longer.
Parvin Pasali is a graduate of the Faculty of International Relations of Baku State University. He has conducted research on international security and global terrorism, with a particular interest in the Middle East and Islamist terrorist groups.
